Re: Clinton-Obama
The Ohio Republican Party is even more scandal-tainted than the national party right now, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the Dems carry Ohio for once.
Looking at it state by state is a pretty good idea, but I do think there will be a lot more States in play than in any election since 1992.
Can we really see any states where Hillary gets more votes than Gore, Edwards, or Obama would?
She won her Senate race in 2000 by 19% less than Gore carried New York. That's a lot of people who voted for Gore and then voted against Hillary.
Obama plays a lot better among white voters than most other black politicians. He spent a good deal of his childhood being raised by white grandparents in rural Kansas, so he has a common bond there. They seem to like him a lot in downstate Illinois, which is demographically similar to swing states like Iowa, Missouri, and West Virginia where he'd like to compete. I doubt being black will hurt him in places like Florida which have both a lot of black city dwellers and white suburbanites. Remains to be seen in New Mexico, New Hampshire, West Virginia, and other states where the swing vote is almost all rural white folks.
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