Re: Badly Played?
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Quick example, let's say the pot is $100, and there's two players to the flop. You're holding Ah 10s. The flop comes down Ac 9c 2d. You opponent checks to you. You figure him to be on a flush draw with two clubs.
There are 9 clubs left, and two cards to come, which means he should hit it 1 out of 3 times, or 1/3 of the time. This means that he will win 1 and lose two, or that he's a 2:1 underdog.
If you bet out $50, which makes the pot $150, he's getting 3:1 on his money. If you bet out $100, he's getting 2:1 on his money ($200/$100). As longs as his odds of hitting and the price the pot is paying is better or even, he's correct to call. In order to protect your hand and give him the wrong odds to call, you have to bet out more than $100. $150 to $200 would be about right.
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The problem with your example is you're calculating as if Villain gets both streets to catch his flush for the price of one. Hero gets to charge him once for the turn card, and again for the river. Only if Hero is out of ammo does Villain get both streets for the first price.
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