[rufus]

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does the ROR forumla also assume that you never move down in stakes? never understood that bit

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Basically, the assumption is that you can make a bet of any amount you like at some known edge and variance, as many times as you like, and that repeated trials are independent.So the ROR formula assumes that you can move up and down in stakes without any effect on your edge.

While none of those assumptions are really valid, the central limit theorem allows for pretty strong statistical approximation for repeated trials. However, player skill which can be a huge factor for things like table selection and tilt, is likely to change over time. Similarly, the return at small stakes is likely to be different than that at higher stakes.