[Jay Riall]

Because the majority of his range is pairs that will call a bet (this is like the no 1 way to make money at SSNL - people call too much), but check behind if we check and flush draws (which don't bluff the river nearly as often as you think. Saying they definitely bet river is ridiculously naive). He doesn't turn up with Qx as much as the midpairs given turn and river and the fact it would be the case Q. Also checking and betting are pretty similar vs Qx anyway since they are raising if we lead like half-pot anyway.