Re: Question #44
This actually seems pretty close to me. It's instacall at the micros, but if this Lag has a brain, and if we've got a reasonably tight image, this is ugly.
Successful LAG's (ones that spend any amount of time at a 5/10NL game?) play loose for preflop bets and small turn bets, but are really only looking to shove it all in when they're cashing in on their loose image with a monster.
By my math, we're getting ~2:1, and we're about 1:3 to get another heart (not all hearts are outs, btw). Villain has to be bluffing more than 1 time in 6 to make the call correct.
He's got to figure our 3bet represents more pairs than unpaired hands, so the CRAI does not really mean "I know this flop missed you". If we had open-raised, this would be different. I think he's about 80-90% likely to be able to beat 1-pair right now. ~85% makes the call break-even.
This sure looks like the smart way to play a set, so I'd like to change my answer to fold. (I probably chose call when taking the test).
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