[LearnedfromTV]

someone can check my math on this but i think the likelihood of making a four card hand each way is ~3.7%.

for a given suit: (13*12*11*10*13*12*11) card combinations * (7C4 = 35 ways to distribute the suit) * (6 ways to distribute the offsuit cards). That times four accounts for all suits, divide by (52*51*50*49*48*47*46).

But the vast majority of 7-card hands will make a four-card hand one way or the other. 3/2/2/0 and 3/3/1/0 are the only distributions that don't, plus a few of the 3/2/1/1 types that pair.

Trying to think about strategy - the three strongest hands on 5th street would probably be a good badugi with the suited card the same suit as your highest badugi card, a made flush with a low offsuit card, and a 3/1/1 hand with strong 3 card hands both ways. Rough badugis and [censored] flushes are probably ok as long as you make them early, but drawing to a rough tri or a [censored] 3-flush on 4th without much the other way would be bad unless really cheap.

Mediocre made one-way hands probably want to push when the rest of the players are drawing, both to charge people drawing for their side and to freeroll versus a draw for the other side (backing into a 3 card hand that scoops is more likely headsup). Really strong made hands might want to pull, especially on sixth with say a 2/2/1/1 distribution, once making a winning hand the other way is very unlikely. It seems a lot changes from fifth to sixth, a good one way hand on fifth needs to catch very well on sixth to have a scoop chance.

Aces are huge.

Might also be fun w/ a qualifier, where only four-card hands play.