Re: Whoa...
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a) fold
b)c-bet 2/3 pot give up if called
c) c bet 2/3 pot and prob stack off
d)see c
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If this is how we plan to play postflop (and I can't see how else we play), then 3-betting is a bad idea.
a) We almost never fold him out with our 3-bet. About 25% of the time, he pushes and we fold.
b) 67% of the time we miss. We c-bet and probably fold him out around 40% of the time (including other AK's and JJ on a Q-high flop) but lose our investment + c-bet the other 60%. This is the biggest loss in EV, but fit or fold is a loser as well.
c) 33% of the time we hit. We win the pot about 75% of the time, chop 15% and get stacked roughly 10%.
Any way I calc this, it's -EV. At least by calling, maybe we have some wiggle room to outplay him or get some implied odds by winning a c-bet on an A- or K-high flop when his pp misses. But do we even get EV from that?
Also, how big a preflop raise would you call with AK against this guy? If we call 0.80, do we call 1.00 - 1.20?
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a) there is no way we know that he pushes 25% of the time
b) if we 3 bet then cbet 2/3 the pot andtake it 40% of the time we are making money. ( only has to work 1/3 times to break even)
c) how does flat calling alow us to out play him after the flop? yeah our range is hidden but so is his
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