Re: Hero folds?
ok, so I slept and sobered up and it occured to me that in my last post I trusted some numbers thrown around in this thread, and shouldn't have because they're completely unrealistic...the only straight draw on this board is the broadway gutshot, and it's a 2 card draw in every case. This means that in the oh-so-scary nightmare scenario where everyone is drawing to a gutshot, they can have at most 8 outs total, in the event that one has QJ, one has QT, and one has JT (remember, a J is in our hand so QT is a 2 outer). The rest of the time they have even less because 2 of them have the same hand.
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Board: Ah Kc Kd 7s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 89.041% 89.14% 00.00% 296876 0.00 { AdJh }
Hand 1: 03.646% 02.13% 01.52% 7096 5061.50 { QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 03.649% 02.15% 01.50% 7162 5005.00 { QTo+, JTo }
Hand 3: 03.663% 02.17% 01.50% 7220 4994.50 { QTo+, JTo }
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[ QUOTE ]
Board: Ah Kc Kd 7s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 87.498% 87.50% 00.00% 546508 0.00 { AdJh }
Hand 1: 05.001% 05.00% 00.00% 31237 0.00 { QJo }
Hand 2: 02.529% 02.53% 00.00% 15797 0.00 { QTo }
Hand 3: 04.972% 04.97% 00.00% 31053 0.00 { JTo }
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What if they aren't sharing draws? What if someone has a pocket pair for the 2-outer and the other has Ax with a relevant kicker?
[ QUOTE ]
Board: Ah Kc Kd 7s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 78.162% 70.31% 07.86% 658214 73559.00 { AdJh }
Hand 1: 08.979% 08.98% 00.00% 84063 0.00 { QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 05.002% 05.00% 00.00% 46830 0.00 { 88 }
Hand 3: 07.857% 00.00% 07.86% 0 73559.00 { A9o }
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Just for fun, in this case if we assume that everyone folds to your raise (including turn bettor) if you raise, but overcalls if you call, then the EV of calling vs raising is (.78)(2) - (.22)(6.25), or +.185BB. And again keep in mind that I basically handpicked the worst possible combination of hands that could be out against you other than boats and trips. Trying to protect on this turn is pretty lol.
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