Re: Question 33
I think you've read reasonable in his agression on the flop to mean: he is only agressive on the flop when he is confident he has the best hand. It's reasonable to raise with a fairly wide range here.
Before we analyze his range, lets consider from his perspective the range that we are raising with here.
I think its reasonable for us to semibluff any paired 6 and we semibluff a gutshot and a pair fairly often say 33 25% of the time and 88 75%, so 88, 67, 66, 65, 64, 33 are definitely in our range (although most of the time 80% we fold these preflop, so I'll discount these), we raise a set, two pair and even TPTK (44, 55, 77, A7, K7 (rarely), 54s, 57s, 74s (rarely)) to protect the hand, we raise an overpair as a semi-bluff and a raise for information (we can counterfeit his two pair, get him to fold some better pocket pairs and find out where we stand (but we will often have raised these before the flop so we should discount accordingly), we might raise bottom straight but we're really unlikely to hold 36 in the first place. With top straight we call sometimes and then make a valuebet with position makes sense to me. All in all I think we are raising with a straight or set not all that often here (20 of the 80 hands I have in our range)
Here's the range for our raise I came up with -- I've used suited cards as a placeholder for the idea that we're folding these hands before the flop at least 75% of the time.
99-44,3c3d,3c3h,A7s,9c6c,8c7c,8d7d,8c6c,8d6d,8h6h,75s +,7c4c,6c5c,64s,6c3c,6d3d,5c4c,Ad7c,Ah7c,As7c,Kd7c ,Kh7c
Basically, we will rarely have a straight and we will sometimes have a set and we will raise with quite a few hands that are scared by a raise (by my count we have 80 hands in our range 20 are a set or a straight, 30 set straight or two pair) I think we fold anything else pretty easily to a big raise). So he can expect to win $105 by raising (5/8)*165 and imagine he loses 2/3 of the hands when we call [either by folding to a later bet or by checking down to the river) -(3/8)*(-370)*(2/3) = -95.
The point is -- he can make this move and he only needs to have a better set or a straight 1/3 of the time in order to justify it.
I don't think this is very close.
A more interesting question is whether to raise or shove... I wish someone would write about that.
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