Re: Is This an Overbet or Bluff? What would you do?
Because pushing looks weaker than betting half the pot, and he doesn't even have a PSB in his stack? 78 into 87 pot isn't exactly an overbet. Betting 30 or 45 into an 87 pot looks MUCH stronger than pushing and having you ask yourself "why would he push with those hands?", and perhaps get a call from something as bad as QJ here. NOT pushing here with those hands would be counterintuitive.
I understand you will see a bluff here from time to time, and that you and the other guy have shown weakness, but with the read you have (or essentially no read), I have a pretty hard time believing he is going to be bluffing here 30% of the time to make calling profitable. He will be bluffing here some of the time, but far less than 30% IMO. If you called and he showed miss draw this time, good for you. I still think its a pretty bad call.
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