Re: Question 33
Still obsessing on 33, because Kip shook my confidence --
Someone slap me hard because I am going to try to do math.
Even if he has a straight in question 33, we are roughly 33% to win.
If he has the high two pair (going to just assume for simplicity this is the very minimum he would three bet with), we have an 81% chance to win.
If you assume there is a 50% chance he has the straight, and that he would never fold the 2 high pair, a push would be a -$40ev play. So, this problem really boils down to how often you think he is playing the straight here. Given the massive emphasis on tightness that KipBond pointed out in the question, it may well be that the "correct" answer here is to fold. But it is certainly a close call.
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