[bustedromo]

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You should take a look at some simulation graphs posted over in the MTT forum. There is very significant long-term variance swings even for high-volume online play. I was amazed when I saw those graphs. Unfortunately, can't find link right now.

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Pretty sure OP meant poker pros, not lottery players.

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The graphs weren't for MTT players specifically. The graphs were for indepedent trials with a specified edge, bet size, and bankroll. Nothing to do with the specific game being played. Could be chess, backgammon, blackjack, whatever.

I really wish I could find the link to those graphs. Eye opening stuff.

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If you think that the variance is the same for MTT's as it is for cash-games then you are wrong.

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I never said anything about MTT other than that the simulations were posted in the MTT forum. The purpose of the simulations wasn't to establish what kind of long-term trends might occur in a MTT pros bankroll. The purpose was to show how downswings and upswings can last for a very long time and become quite extreme even for standard conservative assumptions about edge, variance, bankroll, and velocity.