Re: First good idea
Hey guys- sorry been AWOL...dealing with a bleeding portfolio is always fun.
I really don't have a lot to add from previous posts. As far as I am concerned little has changed here from $11 to $8.50. DSUP has an enterprise value at $8.50 of (depending on which seasonal balance sheet you use) around $480m. At $11-12 it had an EV of around $525-535m. This is quite a small difference. Welcome to the world of investing in leveraged companies. I am not recommending people do anything...it's a pressure I don't want to take. I bot more stock around 9.60 or so but I am very full. That's about it for me. I am not even tempted to sell any here...but the stock is very thinly traded and has been in free fall on very very little volume. 40k shrs (some of which is double counted) is probably $300k total of trading. That is what has been taking the stock down 5%+ per day.
If the US economy does not implode, I believe in this idea over the next 12-18 mos, as I have said. They have little residential exposure. It is a negative if the junk mkt never comes around...but, if I am right, their EBITDA will continue to improve on a trailing twelve month basis and this will enable them to refi at satisfactory (certainly better than what they have now) rates.
DSUP is not in trouble. They will be about neutral in cash flow this year, they have room on their line of credit, and they don't have maturities until 2009. The stock is not going to zero.
That's all I got. This is probably the last specific name I will post. I don't like losing my money, but I like losing other people $ even less...I remembered the pump part, I just forgot to dump. Damn.
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