[Nairb]

I have always used this formula to calculate percentages:

# of outs x4 after flop= win %
# of outs x2 after turn.= win%

With 12 outs after flop you are approximately even money even if he holds a K. I would push over the top of his bet 100% of the time. You are drawing to the nut flush and have 3 aces as possible outs.

You did not mention stack sizes at all which would influence my play here as would any reads you may have but against a random solid player with no pre-flop agression I push here. I am assuming there was no raise pre-flop in your example.

As a straight pot-odds decision you have to call here but I like a push better. If he hits 2 pr your outs decrease to 9 and against 2 pr with 9 outs you are over 5-1 dog drawing to the river for your flush card.