[StellarWind]

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New odds at Bodog on Male/Female SYTYCD winner:

Male: -140
Female: Even

This is a major odds shift toward female.

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New line today:

Male: -130
Female: -110

Last night Cat posed Mary the question of whether a girl could win this year for the first time in three seasons. Mary's answer was an enthusiastic yes.

A few minutes later we saw a different answer in the form of solos by all eight contestants. Based on that demonstration my conclusion is the girls face a very uphill battle to say the least.

Analysis of the Top 6:

Men: This looks to be a tight race to the final.

1. Danny is the best dancer but too often not the one who dances best. He could pull away from the others if he gets his act together. He's the best soloist and winning the final may be a lot easier than getting there.

2. Neil is another strong dancer and excellent soloist. He's more flexible than Danny and less likely to screw something up. Charisma while dancing was a problem at the beginning but he is much improved and now it is Danny that is lagging in this area.

3. The female dancers love Pasha and not just because he's handsome, fun, and a great dancer. Pasha is the best partner and worst soloist by large margins. He could easily reach the final through partner dances and then lose without a real fight because of his weak solos.

Women: A two-way battle here.

1. Lauren is amazingly lucky. She reached the B3 the week Jessi got sick and survived a horrible solo only because they needed to cut Jessi. Then in the cut to the final ten she outlasted Anya on a split decision. Last week she finished next to last ahead of Jaimie who has been much better all season. Finally this week she was outdanced by Sara but survived anyway. She's not a bad dancer but she has gone much farther than she deserves.

That's all behind us now. Lauren is dead money with no real chance to survive another week. Even if she miraculously makes the final she's a poor soloist with no chance to win.

2. Lacey was not her best this week and she needs to bounce back quickly. With Lauren almost a sure out this week she is really fighting a two-week battle with Sabra to reach the final. Lacey is a weak soloist who will have a hard time in the final. The wild card here is she seems to be immensely popular and no one has ever put a limit on that. It's possible her voting block is unstoppable regardless of what happens on stage.

3. Sabra fooled me. She just keeps getting better and better and her previously unnoticeable personality has become very engaging. She never seems to have a bad performance and her solos are quite good.

Summary: The boy/girl question could come down to the Lacey-Sabra battle. If Lacey reaches the final either Danny or Neil is likely to beat her because her solos just aren't very good. Sabra's hardest task may be reaching the final but once there she could make it a real battle.