Re: big draws w/o fold equity
ok i'll give it a shot. i don't do these kinds of calcs ever so i'm sure it will contain mistakes, i'd appreciate anyone pointing out where i mess up.
option 1: all-in on the flop. according to twodimes.net i have .526 equity on the flop vs red aces. that's $1052 equity or +$52.
option 2: just call the flop. that puts the turn at $625 with $690 left.
8 cards make my straight/flush w/ bb drawing dead. +$1000 ev.
6 more hearts to make my hand but give him redraws to a better flush. .886 ev so +$772
6 cards that give me a pair. .432 or -$136 (but still a call because of the overlay in the pot).
25 blanks that i can't call a turn push. -$310.
8/45(1000)+6/45(772)+6/45(-136)+25/45(-310)=+90.3
so that would seem to support just calling the flop.
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