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Old 07-28-2007, 04:45 AM
molotom molotom is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 160
Default Re: $50nl bottom set monotone flop your play?

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Maybe I have been playing live too much. If I am pretty sure this guy will pay me off with AA if i hit my set why do I not call? I am almost 200bb deep

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your stack size is irrelevant b/c he has less than you. you effectively have 97bbs.

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It's a leak to call here. It's tempting to look just at the odds of hitting your set, but there is more involved. Significantly, he will occasionally suck-out or flop set-over-set.

Let's assume he has AA, and is going to shove any flop. You call on any flop with a 7. Let the size of the remaining stacks going to the flop be 1 unit.
x denotes any card that is not an A or 7.
P(7xx Flop) = 2*44c2 / 48c3 = 0.109389454
P(A7x Flop) = 2*2*44c1 / 48c3 = 0.010175763

On the 7xx flop, your equity is about 90% (He can catch an A or a 4-flush)
Ev (7xx Flop) = (1) * (90%) - (1) * (10%) = 0.80

On the A7x flop, your equity is about 5%
Ev (A7x Flop) = -0.90

I'm going to ignore the instances of quads (about 50x less likely that a set)

Ev (seeing a flop) = 0.109389454 * 0.80 - 0.010175763 * 0.90
= 0.078353

1/0.078353 = 12.76269185

So even in this idealised case, your implied odds are 11.7:1 (note this is not enough to call in OP)

If we put him on a more realistic (yet still conservative) range of AK,QQ+ it's even worse. He will not stack off with QQ,KK on ace-high flops, cutting your implied odds some more. AK is terrible for you - the chance of both AK and 77 hitting is about 3%, so setmining is not going to work... yet you are going to lose the flops where you both miss, because even when it's obvious the flop missed AK, his range (QQ+,AK) is too strong to continue against:

Board: 9s 5h 2d
201,960 games 0.005 secs 40,392,000 games/sec

Board: 9s 5s 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.462% 60.46% 00.00% 122109 0.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 39.538% 39.54% 00.00% 79851 0.00 { 77 }

I think that even against a 3-bettor you need at least 15:1 implied odds to setmine.
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