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I think you underestimate the power of single-issue religious voters. They may not vote for Rudy, but that's a far cry from saying they'll vote for a democrat.
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Yes, but if hey say at home that's an enormous boost for the Dems. Elections are decided more than anyhing by who can mobilise their supporters.
In spite of how everyone says they hate Hilary, according o the polls she would just beat McCain or Guiliani if the elections were held tomorrow. Overall I think those matchups will be a coin toss. If Obama is he Dem candidate then he will probably destroy whoever he's up against. He's polling way ahead and he will mobilise the many black voters who would always have been on the Dem side but just never turned out to vote.
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm
Edit: I's only a coin toss between Hilary and Mc/Gu if Bloomberg doesn't run. Pretty damn sure that if he does then it's a slam-dunk for the Dems.