[rwesty]

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The first site to lower their SNG rake significantly would probably see their membership grow quickly. A chain reaction would start, lowering SNG prices everywhere (unless they are colluding somehow).

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Why does everyone think this? Poker sites are not the type of thing that people shop around on prices for.

The average player sits down at whichever site he first joined, had the best advertising, won a freeroll on, had his favorite pro, or which software he likes best and just plays. He's not looking into the cost of playing at other sites vs his site, he just doesn't care. He's there to relax after work or whatever.

The player out to make money will play wherever the most money can be had. If a site cropped up with 25% rake but all of its players went all in the first hand, he would play there over the site with 2% rake and a player pool like the ones we have been seeing lately.

If site A lowers rake, good players out to make money will leave other sites and come to site A. The games will dry up and the savvier players will leave site A for site B because the fish:shark ratio is much better.

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You can keep saying this but you're 100% wrong. Poker players, fish included, respond to rake. Even the most clueless players are at least somewhat aware of what rake is. If either FullTilt or PokerStars doubled their rake on SNGs there would be a mass exodus. If one of them lowers their rake there will also be movement towards the lower rake. Whether or not the customers respond enough that it makes it worthwhile for the site to change their rake structure is the only thing that is uncertain. It is my opinion that the current SNG rake is high enough that a change would increase traffic enough for it to be well worth it for the site.