[Blarg]

I think you underestimate the power of single-issue religious voters. They may not vote for Rudy, but that's a far cry from saying they'll vote for a democrat.

You don't have to approve of how the Iraq war is going to vote for people who want to continue it either. Americans have a strong tendency to rally for whoever is in office when America is at war. "America, Right or Wrong" is a sentiment with very real value to a lot of people. A good deal of people even believe it is un-American to speak out for your beliefs(!!!) when we are at war.

Additionally, there isn't really a plan that the democrats can put out there that can make withdrawal from Iraq look like anything smooth or without disastrous results in Iraq. (Though the option of continuing is disastrous too.)

So I really don't think the Dems are leaping ahead because of Iraq. Maybe ahead of where they were, but where they were was basically -- gone. Out of the picture. Irrelevant. Now, they merely come back into visibility on the radar. But that hardly makes them any more popular.