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ego,
there's a lot of weak/tight and otherwise strange advice in your post, like this:
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Against a K: A little worse than a 3-1 dog.
Against A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]: A little worse than a 2-1 dog.
Against both: 6.3-1 dog.
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where did these numbers come from? you're gonna have to show your work, i'm sure.
but anyway, this was my favorite part:
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You've got the
idiot end of an OESD on a paired, two-flush board.
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you're worried about spiking an A and then losing to the ol' 3-high straight (QKA23)?
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<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Calculation results from Poker Calculator 1.1.4.1
Texas Hold'em, 39732 combinations tested.
Board: QsKsKh x x
Hand | JsTc | As2s | Kdx |
------+--------------+--------------+--------------+
Win | 5367 | 8748 | 25506 |
Draw | 90 | 21 | 111 |
Lose | 34275 | 30963 | 14115 |
------+--------------+--------------+--------------+
Win% | 13.62% | 22.04% | 64.33% |
------+--------------+--------------+--------------+
JsTc:
Pair win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 12474
Two Pair win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 12726
Three of a Kind win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 1134
Straight win: 5325 draw: 90 lose: 6051
Flush win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 1134
Full House win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 756
Straight Flush win: 42 draw: 0 lose: 0
As2s:
Pair win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 12348
Two Pair win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 12012
Three of a Kind win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 1092
Straight win: 186 draw: 18 lose: 48
Flush win: 8442 draw: 0 lose: 4830
Full House win: 120 draw: 3 lose: 633
Kdx:
Three of a Kind win: 9582 draw: 0 lose: 13737
Straight win: 0 draw: 108 lose: 81
Flush win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 168
Full House win: 13213 draw: 3 lose: 128
Quads win: 2711 draw: 0 lose: 1
</pre><hr />
All possible turn/river cards and possible off cards for the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hand were enumerated.
Of course I'm not worried about a higher straight beating us - but splitting is another matter. Also, whenever your straight draw is on the upper end of the 5-cards needed to make the straight, you have an extra chance to win by making a pair.
Yes, my advice here is weak/tight - but it's correct in this situation. The OP suggested no reads other than typical loose/passive. Having a weak draw in a hand where two LP's are having a raising war is certainly enough reason to consider folding early, rather than making a hand and losing a ton of bets to a better hand.
There's alot going on in this hand, and my read was correct. One player did have a K, the other had the second nuts, and Hero was drawing nearly dead, and put in 10 big bets with only a runner-runner straight flush draw to bail him out.