[Sherman]

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Why does everyone want to bet?

Is he calling with a worse hand? If so what are they?

Is he folding a better hand? If so which ones?

Is our hand vulnerable if it is ahead? If so to which hands that villain holds?

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1) Because we rate to have the best hand right now, but won't if the turn bricks.

2) QQ and JJ will almost certainly call, and they are pretty solidly behind (and are also the most likely villain holdings.)

3) I don't know that a better hand is folding, but although QQ and JJ are behind us, we profit more when they fold than we do when they call, and JJ could certainly decide to fold here given the action.

4) Our hand is vulnerable to under pairs when we brick the turn. Additionally, if we make a pair on the turn, we're likely to not get action from QQ and JJ, so it's not like we can get action from them on later streets. We may fold JJ and QQ out on the flop, but if we brick the turn I'd say we have no FE against those hands, and indeed they're probably shoving a non A or K turn (JJ may check again if the turn is a queen, but QQ is probably also checking a turn Q, so that doesn't help us all that much. Additionally, turn Q means AQ got there, which makes it not the greatest card in the world to shove at, even if we could fold JJ.) Our hand isn't vulnerable to AQ, but I can't really imagine AQ putting more money in this hand while still behind unless like the Qc hits on the turn or something.

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All good answers. Thank you. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I guess I am not worried about turn bricks because there is no way I am folding this hand to any turn card anyway. I also think that checking behind on the flop might put this thought in his mind, "Oh he missed! Now I can shove-bluff the turn!" Of course when he does you snap call and he is screwed on a hand that he would have folded to a flop shove.

Anyhow, given his stack and the size of the pot, there is no way I am folding this hand on the turn anyway. I might as well let him fire away. It seems to me that the only way the $ is not going into this pot by the turn is if I shove the flop and he folds a worse hand.