[Thremp]

dude,

Before you jump to Kelly you need a model that can determine your edge. Otherwise stick to flat betting. For example if you put together your model and it keeps giving out undervalued plays and you can beat the market, but your estimates are all over the board compared with actual movements, and you don't know how to refine it. Then you should probably just stick to flat betting. Once you can get it to accurately portray the odds of an event happening so you can determine your edge then you can bet Kelly safely.