View Single Post
  #14  
Old 07-16-2007, 09:25 AM
bbartlog bbartlog is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 882
Default Re: PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND

If he doesn't have a set I think raising the flop is the correct play...

Yes, but since a set leaves you in pretty bad shape (20% equity) the odds of a set don't have to be that high to make pushing here bad. Anyway flop bettor only needs to have AK7x/AK8x to drop your equity to 30%. If you assume his range is any two pair or a set (and we assume the preflop raiser has A2Wx, which is reasonable and turns out to have been correct), then he has to have specifically bottom two pair for you to be significantly ahead.
There are a lot of opponent hands that seem to leave you with decent-but-not-great equity (like mid 30s): 5678, 789T, K832 and so on.
Anyway, I just don't like pushing here because the equity edge against opponent range doesn't look that high to me, and we're not acting to minimize our chance of elimination. There are enough turn cards we should like that calling seems preferable, and only 15 or so that will make us want to fold (and even then it may get checked to us).
Reply With Quote