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What are you talking about?


Not if Kenny is smart enough to not pay him off.

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There's a dead button. Kenny Tran in the cutoff raises to 350,000; Jon Kalmar is in the small blind and calls. Lee Watkinson is in the big blind and folds.

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800,000 in preflop.

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The flop is {10-Clubs}{3-Diamonds}{6-Clubs} and Kalmar checks. Tran bets 500,000 and Kalmar calls.

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1.3m in and 500k to call. He's getting the right price with the nut flush draw.

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The turn is the {9-Spades}. Kalmar checks. Tran bets 1,300,000 and Kalmar calls.

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3.1m in and 1.3m to call. Kalmar now has a gutshot to go along with his flush draw. He's around a 3 to 1 underdog here against top set and he's getting 2.5 to 1 to call. If Tran calls anything on the river the call is correct, much less AI.

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Sigh.

Your Ace is not a clean out, in case that matters.

The real point is that you can't just look at odds on the flop and assume you are going to get two cards because you will very often face another bet on the turn when the board bricks out.

I will defer any other beginner questions to others.

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OK, look, I was kind of a dick here, I apologize. You have valid points, and this isn't the worst play evar.

But really after seeing this 1234123476 times it's almost always;

ZOMG Suited Ace I call OOP
ZOMG nut flush draw I check/call
ZOMG still nut flush draw I check/call again
ZOMG I hit I shove!!!!!

If this dude is more sophisticated than that, thinking about implied odds and reads that he will get paid off and such, maybe his play is reasonable. I must admit I have no way of knowing. But it sure looks shaky.