Re: ** WSOP ME, $10,000 NLHE, Day 6, Sun., July 15**
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It wasn't 4 actions - it was 3. SB makes first move when folded to. At a SWAG we can figure out what a typical AG range might be. Let's say SB does that with about 2/3 of the possible hands when folded to. BB raises. Let's say he does that with around 1/3 of SB's range. SB now pushes. Let's say he does that with 1/3 of BB's new range. So that makes SB have somewhere around the top 7.4% of hands. Pokerstove's 7.4% range of hands is {88+,ATs+,AQo+,KTs+,QJs}. Note TT is in that range. To make a call correct here, as you note, only needs about 40% equity. Against the range, AKo is 53.2%.
If you change the opponent to an UTG bet-3bet all in maybe you get a tight enough range to think about folding. Not blind versus blind.
cEV clearly deviates from $EV at this point. But this isn't a marginal sort of situation.
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Thanks for this. I was just trying to raise the level of commentary. It's nice to see at least one person responded.
Yes, you're right, it was a 3-bet push, which clearly makes a big difference (although your analysis suggests that my initial 4-bet range wasn't far off).
Thanks again, BvB NLHE is not an area of poker I've had much reason to think about before.
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