[SumZero]

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lol are you serious about that range? His pushing range must be wider than AA-TT/AK. And yeah it is incredibly standard.

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I was just starting with the obvious minimum, since I had to include TT. Also, it doesn't drop much as you add more pocket pairs, so I left it there. And, it's a 4-bet push so ranges can't be all that loose, even if it is BvB.

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It wasn't 4 actions - it was 3. SB makes first move when folded to. At a SWAG we can figure out what a typical AG range might be. Let's say SB does that with about 2/3 of the possible hands when folded to. BB raises. Let's say he does that with around 1/3 of SB's range. SB now pushes. Let's say he does that with 1/3 of BB's new range. So that makes SB have somewhere around the top 7.4% of hands. Pokerstove's 7.4% range of hands is {88+,ATs+,AQo+,KTs+,QJs}. Note TT is in that range. To make a call correct here, as you note, only needs about 40% equity. Against the range, AKo is 53.2%.

If you change the opponent to an UTG bet-3bet all in maybe you get a tight enough range to think about folding. Not blind versus blind.

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The big question is whether or not cEV deviates from $EV at this stage of the Main Event.

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cEV clearly deviates from $EV at this point. But this isn't a marginal sort of situation.