[Dunkman]

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re: Ho's must call

Dids,

At a 9 handed table at the 25k/50k (5k) level there is 120k in the pot preflop + 125k from rain + 350k from her reraise + 1.050k from farry = 1,695,000 and she has to call 700k more so she is getting MUCH better than 2:1 here.

Her hand only needs to be good 29.1% of the time to make her call cEV neutral.

Great MTT players have determined that in the beginning of a tournament cEV (chip expected value) directly approximates $ev.

Once you get in the money cEV and $EV begin to deviate but there is not a significant deviation before you get to the final table (this is because of the top heavy payouts) you would need to use an ICM (independent chip modeling, see STT forum stickies) calculation to determine the best play but even without doing that calculation a 4% edge is too much to pass up. if she had 88 here then she should never be folding if she thinks AK is in the shovers range.

Incidentally, it is the fact that Ho might fold her hand to the push (and most people would imagine that they have fold equity against a woman at the table) that makes it so that the SB will always be correct in shoving AK here. It is also possible that the SB's range is much wider than QQ+/AK (Fslexduck 3 bet all in with 52o at the final table) which makes Ho's call even easier.

The tournament life is something that is WAY overvalued by bad players and most great players make their money from people who fold because they overvalue their tournament life.



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Thanks for typing that all out.

That makes sense.

While I get your point about AK, in the theoretical read I've crafted, AK would be weighted a lot lower in terms of his hand range. I imagine that's likely far too narrow a read.

At what point do you start factoring in payscale issues? That has to play in at all.

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The added incentive for a ME win, especially the first woman to ever win it, outweighs any possible payscale issue. Winning the ME would be far more lucrative for her than anyone else. Very attractive young woman, world champion of poker....her endorsement deals would be tremendous.