[Gonso]

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In the worst-case scenario, let's say your opponents would each have called with any +EV hand and they all folded. That tells you, among other things, that none of your opponents held an ace or king (any hand containing either of these two cards is +EV vs. a random hand) and thus Villain is far more likely to hold one than he would be if you were heads-up to start.

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This is a horribly unrealistic assumption, a lot of hands superior to UTG's can easily fold if in bad position. You have an informational advantage from the BB that none of the other players do. On top of that, many hands that are +EV for you are NOT +EV for them (because of the players yet to act behind them). You are able to call with all kinds of hands that they are not. AJ in EP has a lot of thinking to do, for example - you don't. If you were to get this hand and the action was folded to you, it would be an instacall.


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I'll tell you what. I'll put you in the BB with Q7o in the exact situation described by the OP. I'll even stipulate that the intervening 8 players are soooo tight that they would have folded everything except AA, KK, QQ, or AK.

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This at least is a little better.

If you want to factor this in, and make it a 9 player table, your profitable calling range is any ace, K4s+, K6o+, Q7s+, Q9o+, JTo+, J9s+, any pair 44+.

I ran this through SNGPT, and from what I recall this also assumes that you are calling even if one of the hands in between makes a call. If that's correct, and I don't have time to look it up this second, then obviously the range above is still too tight because that's not realistic. I suspect you didn't account for this? You won't call with QT if another player calls the push ahead of you. You can't even call with JJ profitably against that range (+ the random hand).

For practical purposes, those who require a hand that's 55-45 or better vs a random hand -a few people in the thread including myself- would easily be fine to call here in this spot, even factoring in the other players. You can hold out for a 60% vs random if you want to, but that's a lot of equity you're basically abandoning just to avoid variance. You can fold A4s here?