Re: NL200: Back into 2 pair in blind battle vs 2+2er
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This is a complicated read that you are selling. So, he would bet a set or a straight on the turn 100% of the time, but you think he would play AK as just call the preflop raise, just call the flop bet, check the turn?
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I am pretty confident in the other read though. 100% is a stretch obv but it is up there.
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I agree with the read against most regs. Like you, I'd probably say I'm ahead 85-90% here. The question is, will he call a push with a weaker holding, whereas he's almost sure to call a smaller raise. If you raise to 100-110, I'd be shocked if he folded, unless his raise was a complete bluff. So, you're not getting his whole stack, but still getting a little over half of it. At this point though, its just a math question as to which is more profitable over the long haul.
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