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Old 07-13-2007, 11:44 AM
Mook Mook is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 76
Default Re: Dark All In--What Do You Call With?

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Assuming that everyone looked first before folding would improve your EV as they presumably folded inferior hands.

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Unfortunately for our theoretical hero, you've got that backwards. Their throwing away inferior hands means Villain is more likely, not less, to have a good hand. (The fact that everyone else has folded doesn't affect what our hero is holding, of course - even though we're making these calculations without knowing exactly what that is.)

In the worst-case scenario, let's say your opponents would each have called with any +EV hand and they all folded. That tells you, among other things, that none of your opponents held an ace or king (any hand containing either of these two cards is +EV vs. a random hand) and thus Villain is far more likely to hold one than he would be if you were heads-up to start.

I haven't run the numbers (it would take a while) but I'd want something with at least 60% equity vs. an otherwise "random" hand, and probably more, before I considered calling in this situation.

Mook
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