[jeffnc]

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Angel Largay writes about a similar way of thinking. It's not as fleshed out as yours is in terms of analysis, but he says for every hand you're in, you should be asking who's more likely to go broke with this hand - me or my opponent? That question can guide you to play the hand.

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I never really got that. Say you get dealt QQ and the pot is raised before and your reraise and get one caller. The flop comes Js8d2d. You get 3/4 of the pot (not a small bet since it's a raised pot. He calls. Do you bet the turn? How does "who's going broke" help me here? How do I know who's going broke? He could be calling with AJ, he might be calling a draw? He might have made a set? I don't get how that questions helps.

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As I said, he doesn't flesh out an answer like Flynn/Mehta seem to be doing. The question is useful in the same way that NLHTAP is useful - it tells you some of the right questions to be asking. But there are more examples Largay uses to help you figure it out.

In your example above, part is knowing your players. For example, if you raised with AJ, would you call a reraise? Most solid players would not, if the reraiser were also solid and this were not a blind steal situation. In your example, I'd say you are more likely to go broke than your opponent is if you persist. If he is on a flush draw, is he going to go broke? No. So it's highly unlikely he'll go broke. However, you might if you're not careful. That helps you decide how to play the hand. You don't want to be all in on that hand. You haven't mentioned stack sizes so, usual disclaimers apply - I'm assuming big stacks. If the SPR is right, you very well might get all in on the flop or turn, that's what Matt is talking about.