[rjp]

[ QUOTE ]
shrug, he bet it last night at +7 and it's down to +5.5 now

[/ QUOTE ]

For you to confidently say that CON has a 70% expectation at +7 they would have to win the game 60% of the time. If you're scratching your head at this point and wondering how in the hell +7 is only worth 10% then understand that the points only matter if CON loses, so when they lose 40% of the time each point is worth less than if CON lost a higher percentage of the time, and this is the percentage of the time they must lose to make the points probability and winning probability add up to 70%.

Anyway, if CON were to win 60% of the time then you bet the money line and call it a day. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]