[Nick Royale]

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since villain instantly checked behind on the turn I was very confident that villain didn't have a K.

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I think this assumption is wrong. You probably didn't check the turn fast enough for him not having the time to make a decision what to do with a weak king if you check. It's a no brainer check with Kx on this board so he could easily come to the conclusion to check the turn if he gets the opportunity on the flop already. Btw, what hands do you think he'll autocheck? PPs and 9x only?

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Villain might bet more hands when checked to than he will call with, because he's capable of bluffing after passivity and he might valuebet worse hands (not sure about that though)


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The problem is he can't have a hand without sd value unless he's capable of calling the flop with a gut-shot (highly unlikely). So I just c/f the river expecting him to take a free sd with PPs/9x and bet only with better hands. I don't think a bet gets called by worse hands often enough. Edit: I think the key to this hand is that the flop is so dry and scary looking and your bet is big enough that I don't think he'll make it past the flop without a better hand often and when he does he bet those on the river too infrequently to making calling a bet on the river +EV.