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Here is an excellent CardPlayer article written by Matt Matros about the topic:
http://cardplayer.com/poker_magazine...es/?a_id=15093
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I was fascinated by this article and have really gone through it with a fine tooth comb. I have a few questions about Matt's assumptions. Maybe you guys can help me out.
Matt's equation is take your percentage chance of winning the tournament = x to the nth power, with n being how many times you need to double up and x equaling the percentage edge you are willing to take in a coin flip.
After proving that a player who is twice as good as average can take a 53.6% edge or better to double up, he goes on to say that he would take any edge greater than 48.63%. In other words, he is willing to shove in his chips to double up being a 48% underdog.
He does not run through the numbers on this assertation. Can anyone do it for me? I can't figure it out.
My second question is this. He feels that it is near impossible for a player to be more than a 5x favorite over an average player in a large multi player tournament. I find this surprising.
With the number of tournaments and final tables that a lot of the top pros have made, wouldn't that seem to disprove that theory? I know that everyone is going to argue variance and sample size. But even with a few hundered tournaments entered, wouldn't the results of Men Nguyen, Negraneu, Hellmuth argue that it is entirely possible?