Re: 3 left in FT 22k, marginal spot with A2
The MEV estimates are standard chip chop numbers. They assume that all players are equally skilled, and estimate the probability of each place as a function of the chip stacks. You can read about it in Harrington (Vol. 3, I think). Basically, these numbers assume that you are straight up flipping against these guys. The fact is, if you are playing optimally against someone that is effectively open shoving into you > 75% of the time your MEV in the case where you fold and have 47k is much higher than $3369, because you will be finding much better than flip spots for your money. In other words, the -$28 EV is assuming you are equally as good as these guys and if you are better, you should be even more MEV averse to gambling here.
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