Re: Where ICM is lacking?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1. Assuming that those occasions where other considerations override or significantly modify ICM are much more common than they actually are.
[/ QUOTE ]
Very possible.
[ QUOTE ]
2. Thinking that if he has a skill edge post-flop he can make a standard raise with 10BB and still have enough chips to outplay his opponent on the flop. He's not talking about folding some +EV pushes (although he's undoubtedly doing that too) - he's talking about raising and playing poker instead.
I'm interested to know what the OP thinks is causing his recent lack of profit in SNGs (the subject of his last thread) if he rejects all the advice he got in that thread (ie that he is failing to apply ICM appropriately). Passing up a lot of +EV edges seems to be a pretty good way to neutralise an otherwise +EV playing style.
[/ QUOTE ]
Actually last night's thread wasnt always raising with 10x BB, it was raising on bubble with anything but a monster stack, the discussion just quickly went to ICM which focuses on 10x BB play. I think my recent lack of profit has been (mostly) the result of two things: getting involved too much with above avg stack and getting involved too seldom with below average stack. All the discussion and readings on using ICM to calculate when to push and such has already helped with my problem of not pushing often enough (though I still think it advocates pushing TOO often, for the reasons mentioned in OP). It also helped me to realize to be more agg towards small stacks with pushes- i still dont think its right against someone with 10x BB, but 7x and below i am much more willing to shove in.
I personally think people who push everytime it has some +EV are risking too much too often, and totally taking the skill advantage out against $10 donks. They win in the long run, but I feel you could be winning more.
[/ QUOTE ]
You shouldn't be thinking about average stack in an STT - the blinds get so high relative to the average stack that a few steals can give you the chip lead very quickly.
When you have a reasonably deep stack you should just play good ultra-TAG poker. Don't throw your chips around unnecessarily. On the bubble with a big chip lead you can throw your chips around a lot more because you have a lot of FE and can survive losing a hand or two. It's easier to abuse the bubble like this with one microstack and two medium stacks - with three medium stacks they will have to open up a bit and take more risks. ICM still applies here - estimate your opponents calling ranges and work out the most EV play for a given hand (which is still push or fold if everyone left to act is below 10BB).
When you have a short stack (~10BBs) you need to find good opportunities to push AI. ICM will help you to identify whether an opportunity is good or not, but it is only as good as your read on your opponents. If you don't estimate calling ranges accurately, you will get the wrong advice. GIGO, etc.
It is true that if your opponents are playing suboptimally then you can do better than ICM-based play - but in this case, you need to be able to articulate exactly how their play is suboptimal and understand how that can be exploited. As a shortstack, you have limited opportunities to exploit anyone, so ignoring +EV pushes is still not going to be a good idea.
You'd probably get a lot further posting specific hands where you had trouble than posting up multiple threads asking for general advice - especially if you don't/won't agree with the unanimous responses you're getting here.
|