[molotom]

I don't think theres anything wrong with the ARRIN mindset when you have 14 outs on the flop. When you are so close to a coinflip shoving is always +EV.

The most important consideration, is how strong/disguised your outs are. For instance, OESD+pair is a terrible draw to just call with: if you hit your straight, there'll be 4 to a straight on the board so you will not get paid off, and if you hit some of your two-pair outs you'll be holding 2-pair on a 4-straight board. However it's a good draw to play aggressively... someone holding TT on a 568r board is going to be in a crappy spot if you bet/3-bet all in holding 87o.

However with something like K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on an A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] board, you have 12 outs to the nuts, and if you hit one, people will be less likely to put you on the draw: the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is on the board so a FD is less likely, and people can't just immediately put you on the gutshot if a T falls. If a passive donkey check-minraised me on this flop (telling me that he has a strong hand and that I have no fold equity), I would at least consider just calling.

However, against a strong player I think it's normally best to just shove it in on the flop, since you have more fold-equity, and he will be more likely to fold the turn if you hit and punish you if you don't. Playing your draws aggressively helps to balance your strategy and make you a much tougher opponent.

In the OP's example, I would raise. After the preflop 3-betting and his PSB lead on the flop, the pot is too large in relation to stacks for fancy play. Personally I would make an annoying raise to $19 hoping to induce a tilt-shove from AK (which you have crushed 83/17)... someone who min3bets preflop doesn't fold an overpair here ever so against TT+ the money goes in on the flop regardless.