[JammyDodga]

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At this stage in the tourney you MUST be thinking about payouts, +EV in chips can very easily be -EV in dollers.

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lol, sorry I didn't want to give the impression I was some kind of eccentric millionaire who didn't care about money!


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That wasn't what I was trying to get at, what I meant was that the payoffs determine your actions not the chance of winning chips.

1st $6,345
2nd $4,230
3rd $2,115
4th $1,645

Stack if you call and win 160k
Stack if you fold - 70k
If you lose - you go out and get 4th for $1645

With 160 k lets say your going to win 30% of the time, come 2nd 35% and 3rd 35%

EV of 160k stack = .3 x 6345 + .35 x 4230 + .35 x 2115
= $4124.25

with 70k, lets assume you win 15%, come second 20%, 3rd 30% and 4th 35%
EV of 70k stack = .15 x 6345 + .2 x 4230 + .3 x 2115 + .35 x 1645
= $3008

if you call, EV = .45 x 4124.25 = .55 * 1645 (4th prize)
= $2760.66

So if you fold, your EV is higher than if you call.

Feel free to dispute the percentages, but this is how you need to be thinking (although unless you are some kind of maths freak, rough estimates will have to do in an actual game).

The point I am trying to make is that +EV in chips is not always the same a positive expected doller value for you.