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Old 01-01-2006, 08:48 AM
BruceZ BruceZ is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 4,078
Default Re: Bankroll formulas with hourly rate and standard deviation

[ QUOTE ]
Read Gambling Theory and Other Topics by Mason Malmuth, particularly the section titled "How Much Do You Need?"

Mason doesn't give this formula outright but if you know a bit of algebra you can pull it out of what he wrote. If S is your hourly standard deviation -- the square root of the variance your play records show you experience in one hour's play -- and W is how much you expect to win in one hour's play, then the minimum bankroll you need to play with negligible risk of going broke is:

BR = 9/4 * S*S/W

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This formula will give a 1.1% risk of going broke due to an issue with the GTAOT derivation (see footnote in new version), and the 9/4 needs to be replaced by -ln(ror)/2 for a general risk of ruin ror. See Bankroll formulas for an explanation and the correct formulas. Also,

Derivation of bankroll formulas

Tool for bankroll and risk of ruin
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