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Old 06-22-2007, 05:03 PM
luckychewy luckychewy is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: misplaying kings
Posts: 6,104
Default Re: WSOP $3k Decision vs. Howard Lederer

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i think reraising to 6500 planning on folding to a shove isnt getting enough love here.

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Too thin, we are getting close to the right odds even if he pushes only AK and QQ+ if we do that. We get about 29% and we only need about 30-31% equity to call an allin. Just seems bad to me.

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i agree, i think we need to have a better grasp on his 4-bet freq, which we pretty clearly don't.

i do truly believe we should call here though. obviously nothing we do is going to be an easy way out or anything, but i think flat>fold>4-bet call shove/shove>4-bet fold to shove. i also don't think that when/if we flat we need to shove over every flop bet to make it +cEV. i have no proof of this though, and obviously we need to shvoe over a fair amount of c-bets but we dont know his cbet freq on diff types of boards and we don't even know he is 3-betting light to begin with. but i think we are deep enough(just barely) that we can call and win ui fairly often. if nothing else, it will probably slow him up 3-betting us in the future a bit.
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