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Old 06-22-2007, 03:11 PM
A_PLUS A_PLUS is offline
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Default Re: WSOP $3k Decision vs. Howard Lederer

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Run them versus any range in PokerStove. ATs is about equal to KJs and way ahead of 75s. ATs=KJs > ATo=KJo.

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Seriously, you are giving yourself too much credit if you think that the difference in equity is what determines your decision here.

Equity vs AK, TT+
ATs = 30.2%
KJs = 29.9%
QJs = 31.8%
75s = 27.5%

Equity vs AQ+, 99+
ATs = 32.1%
KJs = 34.6%
QJs = 33.3%
75s = 29.5%


If we have a profitable push, he is going to be folding at least 2 x as often as he will be calling. So, you are actually saying that when we make a decision on whether or not to push, you are making the decision based on a 2-3% difference in equity, on a pot that we don't expect to go to showdown at least 2/3 of the time.

Unless you drastically widen his calling range, the strength of AT vs the other hands I mentioned is basically meaningless in terms of your decision. It amounts to something less than a big blind. In fact, I dare you to come up with an opening and calling range for HL that would lead to ATs being a push and QJs being a fold. (assuming only those 2 options).

Every other assumption we make in this hand has 10 x more important than the strength of our hand here if we jam.
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