Re: WSOP $3k Decision vs. Howard Lederer
I am a little surprised that everyone is getting caught up with our hand here.
Lets say we shove.
He is getting 1.2 - 1, so he certainly doesn't have to call unless he reads you as weak. That would probably only come into play for hands like AJ-AQ, and some pairs .
So, his calling range doesn't include hands we are ahead of very often (really only when he reads us as weak).
Outside of the fact that us having an A limits the combos of AK-AJ that he could have. The strength of our hand is pretty meaningless here. Almost all of the EV of a shove comes from F.E.. Would we be so quick to shove KJ, or 75s here?
If you actually run through the hand logically, you will notice that unless is calling range is pretty wide, our EV is about the same with ATs and 75s. Meaning, a shove is a bluff most of the time.
BUT......
I like to use hand strength as a signal for when to pull a bluff like this. That way, it offers us some protection when someone has a much wider calling range that we expect.
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