Re: WSOP $3k Decision vs. Howard Lederer
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I've been moved to his tables 3 orbits ago. 2 orbits ago I had open-raised his BB from CO with 75s to 800 on 150/300 ante 25 and he folded after setting out the chips to call. 2 hands ago I raised from SB with A10 and folded to a weird reraise from BB of 5000 of his 8000 remaining chips(I guess thats another hand I could post). I took about 2 minutes deciding that one and the whole table could tell i liked my hand. Other than those 2 hands I'd raised one time more
So 150/300 ante 25
HL ~18000
Me ~22000
Folds to me in CO, I raise to 900(note that its 100 more than 2 orbits ago, which I did for no reason) with A10s. folds to HL who again gathers the chips to call after 30 seconds of thinking then thinks for another 30 seconds(he's not looking at me) and grabs 2200 more for a reraise and makes that his action. I ... fold, call, reraise to ~6000- fold to a shove, or shove?
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Meh. The only 2 chances it was folded to you in the cutoff, you have raised. He figures your range includes 75s (which it does!) and maybe worse. There is a decent chance he is restealing here.
He may well have a middle pocket pair. Whatever he has, you can expect a lead bet by Howard on the flop if you smooth call, negating your positional advantage. With 15K left and 6.5K in the pot, he probably bets 4K on the flop -- something he can get away from if you push the flop and he feels he is beat.
You are getting 2:1 on the call with a 2:1 shot of hitting your A or T, if both are live. You may only have 3 outs if he has a big pair or big ace. But I think his range is much wider here.
Pushing all in gives him 21.5:15 odds. He would need 41% against your range. You have some fold equity. But it's a risky play.
I probably call. If I miss the flop and fold to his bet, I might show the ace and say something like, "I nearly pushed preflop, but I felt it was too soon to race." Show him you weren't "stealing" this time so you can steal later.
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