View Single Post
  #20  
Old 06-21-2007, 08:31 AM
UtzChips UtzChips is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 800
Default Re: River Decision with Pocket Qs H/U

With the T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on Board, there are only 2 ways he could have JTs, not the 4 I gave him. So, he has only 19 ways to beat me on the River, instead of 21.

There are 27 paired hands he'll call with. 33 if you say he'll call down with 55.

I am a 33/19 favorite and win 1 BB on the River when I bet out 64.71% of the time, but lose 2 BBs 35.29% of the time, which is a losing proposition.

If he calls with 1/2 of his AK hands, that's another 8 losing hands for him.

Now, I am a 41/19 favorite. I win 1 BB 68.33% of the time and lose 2 BBs 31.67% of the time and squeak out a profit long-term.

Widen Villain's range and it gets better, however, the starting range I gave is approximately the top 18% of all starting hands.
It really doesn't matter if he starts with 100%, it's what he is willing to continue with after the Flop that matters, however, since I said he would not open/raise with JTo from the HJ I removed a lot of possibilities for him drawing out on me on the River.

If we say that Villain will open/raise in the HJ seat with JT offsuit, then that is another 7 hands (to go along with the 2 suited JTs, that beat me
Reply With Quote