Re: OFFICIAL YANKEES 2005 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS OR BUST THREAD
Voltron87
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if the yankees win the series with detroit and boston i would say 90% they make the playoffs.
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Daryn
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yeah seriously.. voltron we should bet, you will be happy to give me 8:1 odds of course, on the yankees not making the playoffs, right?
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Voltron87
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Those 8-1 odds would be if the yankees win the next two series. I would not actually give you 8-1 odds, but I really would expect the yankees to make the playoffs the vast majority of the time in that event.
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Why wouldn't you give 8:1 odds on the Yanks not making it if you feel like they are 9:1 to make it? Based on your analysis, that's pure +EV. But then you backtrack to 'vast majority.' What is that 60%, 75%? Why don't you just admit that your 90% chance statement was total BS, and that even you admit that you were wrong because you wouldn't put your money where your mouth is.
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