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Old 06-18-2007, 09:40 AM
Tom1975 Tom1975 is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 932
Default Re: Is this a good prop bet ?

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He loses if the flop contains no j,7, or 2. This will happen:

40/52 * 39/51 * 38/50= 44.7%

So he wins the other 55.3% of the time.

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You win 40^3/(52*51*50) = 48.3% of the time.

He wins 51.7% of the time.

That gives him about a 3.4% edge. For every $100 you bet you can expect to lose $3.40.

PairTheBoard

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Why is it 40^3 instead of (40*39*38)?

We're trying to find out the chance that no J72 hits the flop, right? On the first card there are 40 such cards. One of them comes on the first card, so the next card has a 39/51 chance of not being a J72. And so on...

Right? Or where am I messing up?

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You're right, PTB is wrong.
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