[sabes]

Ok maybe this will make things simpler. The easiest way to handicap this bet would be to determine the chance of New England winning the SB in any year over the next 3 years.

A fair bet would have my uncle giving odds to me (i.e. chances of Moss winning a SB in the next 3 years are less than 50%). For example, if the average chance of New England winning the SB in any of the next 3 years is say 15%, then the odds of them not winning in any of the next 3 years are .85*.85*.85=.614125. This number is needed because NE needs to not win the SB in each of the next 3 years for my uncle to win. So a fair bet would then be X(.385875):Y(.614125). Where Y=1, then X=1.5915. Fair odds would then be 1.5915:1 which is approximately 8:5 or +160 for NE (Moss) to win a SB in the next 3 years. Am I right or is this some random faulty logic?

So..