Thread: Ockham's Razor
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Old 06-17-2007, 08:24 AM
Metric Metric is offline
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Default Re: Ockham\'s Razor

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The model that the computer will continue outputted the first n digits of pi means that its next output will be the n+1th is a good assumption to make in practise. However it is also clearly false. At some point, with 100% certainty the computer will not output the next digit of pi. Either because it not programed to, a power cut, a bug in the program, the expanding sun finally engulfs the earth and the computer, some hardware anomaly or someone just turning the computer off.

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None of which effects the result that simpler programs are the more likely explanation, given access to a finite amount of the output (and the assumption of truly random input -- i.e. no cheating allowed).

"Your computer will eventually burn up" is not really a good objection to rigorous results concerning algorithmic probability.
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