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Old 06-16-2007, 03:34 PM
emerson emerson is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 818
Default Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games

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I'm a losing player at that game. The worse my opponents, the more I lose. I can play for 6 months at Commerce and not go on tilt as fast as I could in 6 hours at Bellagio 15.

Last year my job was taking chips from the Wynn 15 table and depositing them at the Bellagio 15 table. I left Vegas after 5 days having pretty much broken even, winning big at Wynn and losing it all back at Bellagio. And the Bellagio games were far juicier.

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PJ,

Could you elaborate? Did you find something especially troublesome at the B or was this plain bad luck.

Please explain, as I'm planning to play this game next week.

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If you have ever played advantage video poker, it is something like that. All of the profit is tied up in big, infrequent pays. You win in the long run, but only after you cash the big winners. When many people are in pots and going too far with hands you will win far less often, while the games have bigger long term profit potential. You will simply be less consistent. You will not open raise with AK, semi-bluff the missed flop, and rake in the pot. You will also seldom win with top pair. But you will have rare days when you hit lots of flushes, straights, and full houses. You will have very big wins on those rare days. But because so much of your win is tied up in long shot hands your variance will be much higher.

PJ would have eventually come out ahead if he kept putting in hours at this game. Imagine a video poker machine with a progressive royal flush meter. The meter is at 5X the normal royal flush payout and you have a huge advantage. Well, you could go in and pump $100 a day through that machine for a long time. You won't realize a profit until you finally hit the royal.
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